Tropical Depression Emily is expected to pass the island this week — 30 years after its namesake devastated the island.

As of noon today, Emily was described as a potential threat to the island, and was expected to pass 243 nautical miles to the north-north-west of the island on Thursday afternoon.

The system could continue moving closer after that point.

At noon, it had passed over Florida, and was travelling north-east at a speed of 12 knots, with winds of 25 knots and gusts of 35 knots.

It brought heavy rain and wind damage in the Sunshine State yesterday, damaging a number of roofs and causing street flooding in some areas.

Kimberly Zuill, director of the BWS, said it was still too early to say for sure how close the depression could come to the island, or how strong it would be as it passes.

While the system was downgraded yesterday to a tropical depression as it passed over Florida, experts would be watching to see how much and how quickly it re-establishes itself once it reaches the Atlantic coast.

Other elements that could determine the future of the storm are how it reacts to the warm water of the Gulf Stream and how it interacts with a frontal boundary to the island’s northwest.

“Confidence is high that should all those ingredients go as planned in the forecast advisory, it will pass to our distant northwest just over 300 nautical miles as a 40kt tropical storm,” Ms Zuill said.

“In order for this system to move closer to Bermuda than forecast, it would need to overcome the challenges of increased shear while mixing with the front and upper level trough, and at the same time the large Atlantic high pressure to our east would need to shift a couple hundred miles further east than expected, thus allowing the frontal boundary to solidly cross the island carrying Emily with it.

“At the moment, this scenario is highly unlikely.”

She said meteorologists will know more by late this morning, when the system has had an opportunity to reform in the Gulf Stream.

In the meanwhile, the local forecast calls for breezy southwesterly winds with mostly cloudy skies, occasional showers and the possibility of thunder on the first day of the Cup Match holiday.

Conditions are expected to be better on Friday, but a shower or two remain a possibility. The storm’s name may stir less-than-kind memories for many Bermudians.

On September 25, 1987 Bermuda was rocked by Hurricane Emily. Making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, the storm caused $50 million in damages, costing more than 200 homes and commercial buildings their roofs.

Ms Zuill explained that while it is common to “retire” hurricane names once a storm causes a certain level of destruction, the US Navy never applied for the name to be removed from the rotating list.

“Since the establishment of the Bermuda Weather Service in 1995, in the wake of the US Navy Base’s departure, the BWS has been responsible for all National Weather Service functions.

“The director has a seat at the annual World Meteorological Organisation Region Area IV Hurricane Committee, where discussions surrounding the effects from the last hurricane season, lessons learnt, changes to policy and NHC procedures as well as decisions such as which names will be retired, occur.

“In 1987, Bermuda did not have a seat or voice in that forum and the US did not retire the name from the cycle. Now any system that does have an impact with that level of destruction is retired. An example of this occurring for Bermuda is Fabian 2003, which was replaced with the name Fred.”